Impact Patterns Research on Chinese Social Stock of Steel During the Evolution of Industrialization

Author:Wang Lin

Supervisor:qi zhong ying


Degree Year:2018





Steel is one of the most indispensable raw materials during the evolution of industrialization,and it is also an important support of national material wealth.Steel consumption increases sharply recently,and China has become the largest steel consumer around the world.Steel serves for people’s production and life in the form of houses,vehicles etc.,accumulates in social-economic system under anthropogenic consumption activity,which is called steel social stock,and stock for short.Steel stock is the representation of social wealth,is the potential source of steel secondary resource.The use of steel stock can significantly reduce the dependence of iron ore,and effectively solve the problems of high energy,high emission,and high pollution.Therefore,the related researches have become the focus objects at home and abroad.As a matter of fact,there is close relationship between steel stock and national industrialization.During the evolution of industrialization,economy develops and industrial structure changes,the development of economy and the change of industrial structure has a significant impact on steel consumption,and ultimately influences the level of stock.On the basis of related research,the impact patterns are studied between national industrialization evolution and steel stock:Firstly,history patterns of steel are studied using dynamic MFA during the evolution of industrialization on Chinese national level.There is an obvious phase feature of steel stock during the evolution of industrialization.Chinese steel stock grew slowly,quickly,and rapidly at the phase of pre-industrialization,the earlier stage of industrialization,and the middle stage of industrialization.The increase pace of steel stock has accelerated,social material wealth is accumulated continuously.By further comparison,China has a similar stock process with USA and Japan.In the process of industrialization,steel stock in three countries has increased during the evolution of national industrialization and presented a trend of accelerating.Secondly,dynamic impact patterns are studied between economic output and steel stock during the evolution of industrialization using the method of nonlinear STR model technology.In the stage of pre-industrialization,the impact alternated between linear and nonlinear,and in the earlier stage of industrialization,the middle stage of industrialization and the later stage of industrialization experienced,linear influence feature is presented in China.The nonlinear influence between economic output and steel stock in the stage of pre-industrialization is related with the factors of political volatility.Thirdly,dynamic impact patterns are studied between industrial structure and steel stock during the evolution of industrialization using the method of time-varying parameter state space model.There is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between industrial structure change and steel stock.The changes of secondary and tertiary industry have influenced steel stock significantly both in the short term and in the long run.The impact from industrial structure to steel stock in China has similar features with USA and Japan during the evolution of industrialization.The impact turns up in pre-industrialization,down in earlier stage of industrialization,and then turns up in middle and later stage of industrialization.Lastly,steel social stock is predicted on Chinese national level by using the method of stock predicted model on the basis of USA and Japan.Chinese total stock of steel will rise rapidly after the year of 2015,but the growth will decline continuously,the growth range will decline to zero during the period of 2030-2035.Per capita stock of steel will still increase rapidly in the future process of later industrialization,and it will reach the saturation level of 8 to 12 t until 2030 s.The production of steel should be cut down,circulation technology should be improved,industrialized combination should be conducted and finally release excess capacity.