Research on Macro-Safety Risk Analysis and Control of Areas Along the Highway from the Perspective of Mobile Hazards

Author:Huang Xi Fei

Supervisor:luo yun


Degree Year:2019





As the industrialization process accelerates in developing countries,highway accidents involving hazardous goods are increasing,and the threat associated with these accidents to areas along the highway cannot be ignored.A large number of hazardous goods now appeared on the urban road network as the ‘mobile sources of hazards’ and its accident has the characteristics of low probability,heavy consequences and uncertain risk acceptor.Risk analysis based on "VehicleHighway " system is difficult to meet the needs of regional safety supervision along highway.It is urgent to construct the theory and method of risk analysis of areas along the highway from the perspective of mobile sources of hazards.This paper focuses on the problem of highway area risk analysis under "Vehicle-Highway-Environment" integrated system,aiming at achieving quantitative risk assessment and early warning and pre-control.Combining with risk management theory and geographic information system technology,the concept and influencing factors of macro-safety risk of areas along the highway are studied,risk assessment model and analysis process are studied,and risk classification management and control model and strategy method for macro-safety risk of areas along the highway are constructed.Risk management provides theoretical support and technical guidance.The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Analysis of risk influencing factors.According to the characteristics of multi-factors and coupling of risk in system of areas along the highway,this paper puts forward an analysis process of factors affecting risk of areas along the highway based on soft system methodology.The basic concept and connotation of macro-safety risk is clarified,a relationship model between highway area system elements and risk factors are established,and the perception and expression of highway area system elements by means of rich picture method completed.Finally,based on root definition and concept model a set of risk factors is constructed.(2)Establishment of Risk Assessment Model.Using ARAMIS methodology and vulnerability thinking,the macro-safety risk logical analysis model is analyzed,and the concepts and categories of three safety state parameters,frequency,intensity and vulnerability,are defined.The accident frequency and consequence intensity evaluation model is designed to complete the macro-safety risk severity analysis of highway area.The connotation of vulnerability parameters is expanded,and the vulnerability evaluation model and method are formulated;The parameter evaluation model is used to construct the mathematical analysis model and evaluation process of macro-safety risk of areas along the highway.(3)Design risk management and control technology process.Guided by the requirements of highway safety supervision,the technological process of risk management and control based on spatial analysis is established.The visualization scheme of macro-safety risk map is designed by using geographic information system.The process of risk contribution analysis of safety state parameters is designed based on the idea of space principal component analysis,and the principles of identifying high-risk points and high-risk factors are formulated;on this basis,the basis is introduced.On this basis,the Risk-Based Supervision/Management theory is introduced to construct a three-dimensional structural model of macro-safety risk management and control of areas along the highway,and to design a risk matching regulatory model and strategy.(4)Complete the Empirical Study.Taking the data of G4,G6 and G104 highways in Beijing as an example,the applicability of the evaluation model,the reliability of risk maps and the scientificity of management and control strategies are verified.