System Dynamics Modeling Study on Euphausia Superba Resources Sustainable Development

Author:Zhang Lingling

Supervisor:Hua Weina


Degree Year:2013





Nowaday,traditional economic fishes due to overfishing leading to the reduction of quantity and resource,but for the world people who are thirst of nutrition,the euphausia superba,which is rich in resource and high value of nutrition,is attracting the world’s eyes.Exploitation of euphausia superba can cope with stress of different countries in sea areas under the jurisdiction of fishing products,can cope with stress of distant fishing,in addition,can also get improvement of the international fishing management field status of different countries.Therefore,many countries catch euphausia superba in Antarctic.Euphausia superba is the important part of antarctic food chain,is the core component of encosystem,once the euphausia superba resource are damaged,it will leads to the whole antarctic encosystem broken down.Thus,to investigate euphausia superba resource is important to maintain antarctic ecological equilibrium.In this paper,with the help of System dynamic method,we make an euphausia superba resource sustainable development model,and Simulation analysis of this model,we can make following conclusions:1.Driving mechanism of euphausia superba population changeAlthough the development and utilization of current euphausia superba resources has already affected the change of individual number in the euphausia superba populations,which is almost negligible compared with the huge number of individuals in euphausia superba populations and their periodic changes.The change of euphausia superba populations is mainly affected by the birth rate of euphausia superb.In addition,the birth rate change of euphausia superba has a significant influence on single vessel net income,total catches,euphausia superba price,etc.the instability of which is increasing.This triggered latent crisis of fishing industry development and the market of euphausia superb.Maintaining the stability antarctic marine ecosystem is the basic requirements to ensure the euphausia superba populations in continuation,is the basic requirements to maintain the development of euphausia superba fishing industry and market stability.2.The stimulative factors of development of fishing industry and market of euphausia superbRaising policy factors,reducing the expenditure of euphausia superba fishing fixed costs,increasing the per capita demand of euphausia superb,and the increase of per capita GDP growth rate and birth rate is advantageous to the increasing of the number of fishing boats,the stability of single vessel profits,the expanding of totall catches of euphausia superb and the stability of the euphausia superb price,and has a positive role in promoting to the sustainable development of the euphausia superb fishing industry and euphausia superb market.Policy factors(encouraging fishing boats construct)and increasing the per capita demand of euphausia superb are the most effective control handle to rasie the sustainable development of fishing industry and market of euphausia superb from two aspects of demand and supply.3.The policy suggestion of euphausia superb resources system sustainable developmentTo promote the sustainable development of the euphausia superb resources,policy incentive measures are recommended to adopt(such as giving play to the characteristic of policy orientation of state-owned enterprises),to expand fixed asset investment of euphausia superb fishing;Carrying out the standards for admittance into industries and elimination system euphausia superb fishing industry,reforming the fishing technology of euphausia superb to realize the maximization of the scale economies of fishery;increasing the utilization ways of euphausia superb,and expanding the scope of the demand subject of euphausia superb to form growing market demand of euphausia superb;Real-time monitoring and forecasting the change rule of future euphausia superb biomass to provide scientific information for the production of euphausia superb fishing;Under the international framework establishing cooperation plan of each member country joint development and rights and interests of the development and utilization of Antarctic Marine living resources are divided with the unified standards to ensure the sustainable utilization and development of euphausia superb resources.Based on the separation of each subsystem and the effects and feedback mechanism between subsystems of euphausia superb resources sustainable development system,In this study,the antarctic krill resources system dynamics model for sustainable development is set up to provide a research tool for the evaluation and simulation prediction of the antarctic marine ecosystem sustainable development;through the relationship interpretation and situational analysis of the key indicators,the influence of different policies and measures to the antarctic marine ecological resources sustainable development is assessed,and some specific policy recommendations are made to make up for the drawback of the research in sustainable development of euphausia superb and to lay the foundation for the promotion of application of system dynamics in the polar areas.